Investors are nearly certain that the Federal Reserve will announce a quarter-point cut to its benchmark interest rate Wednesday afternoon.

The Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut its key interest rate on Wednesday and could signal it expects another cut in December as the central bank seeks to bolster hiring

What would be this year’s October Surprise at the Federal Reserve? If the Fed doesn’t cut interest rates at its Oct. 28-29 meeting. The widely watched CME Group FedWatch Tool expects a 98.7% chance of a quarter-point reduction to the Federal Funds Rate during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting,

Discover what prediction markets like Kalshi, Polymarket, and CME FedWatch reveal about upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts, market expectations, and policy trends.

Should investors, businesses, and consumers expect interest rates to continue to drop through the end of this year and into the next? The answer depends on a divisive Federal Reserve, the nation’s independent central bank which sets monetary policy by balancing inflation and jobs to control the costs of short-term borrowing.